49ers at Cowboys: Week 10 prediction
Sun, Nov 15, 4:25 PM ET · AT&T Stadium · NFL 2026, Week 10
Projected final31–26
SF 31, DAL 26
SF 31, DAL 26
Win chance in the sims64%
49ers
49ers
MarketSF −4.5
Total 55.5
Total 55.5
What the sims say
| Bet | Line | Sims |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | SF −4.5 | SF covers 50%, DAL 50% |
| Total | 55.5 | Over 47%, under 53% |
| Average score | SF 29.8, DAL 25.3 | One-score game 49% |
Game picks
- Under 55.5: 53% in the sims · Edge
Why
- Score-based ratings make it DAL +4.6 vs the market DAL +4.5: 0.1 points toward SF.
- Ratings project 53.7 total points vs a 55.5 market total (-1.8).
- Weather: wind 15 mph tends to cut passing and scoring; 83% chance of precipitation.
- DAL at home since 2021: average margin +5.8, +1.8 vs the closing spread over 45 games.
- Coyote line: Wind 15 mph: games with 15+ mph wind finished a median -2.0 points vs the closing total since 1999 and went under 55% of the time since 2015. The Coyote line takes 1.0 off the total.
The sims play every snap of this game 500,000 times, tuned to the market spread and total. The projected final is the most common score at the sims’ typical margin and total.
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