Bills at Jets: Week 10 prediction
Sun, Nov 15, 1:00 PM ET · MetLife Stadium · NFL 2026, Week 10
Projected final27–20
BUF 27, NYJ 20
BUF 27, NYJ 20
Win chance in the sims76%
Bills
Bills
MarketBUF −8.5
Total 50.5
Total 50.5
What the sims say
| Bet | Line | Sims |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | BUF −8.5 | BUF covers 50%, NYJ 50% |
| Total | 50.5 | Over 50%, under 50% |
| Average score | BUF 30.2, NYJ 20.8 | One-score game 42% |
Why
- Score-based ratings make it NYJ +9.6 vs the market NYJ +8.5: 1.1 points toward BUF.
- Ratings project 50.6 total points vs a 50.5 market total (+0.1).
- NYJ at home since 2021: average margin -4.0, -1.4 vs the closing spread over 46 games.
The sims play every snap of this game 500,000 times, tuned to the market spread and total. The projected final is the most common score at the sims’ typical margin and total.
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