Chargers at Ravens: Week 10 prediction
Mon, Nov 16, 8:15 PM ET · M&T Bank Stadium · NFL 2026, Week 10
Projected final17–20
LAC 17, BAL 20
LAC 17, BAL 20
Win chance in the sims63%
Ravens
Ravens
MarketBAL −4.5
Total 38.5
Total 38.5
What the sims say
| Bet | Line | Sims |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | BAL −4.5 | BAL covers 50%, LAC 50% |
| Total | 38.5 | Over 50%, under 50% |
| Average score | LAC 17.4, BAL 21.8 | One-score game 48% |
Why
- Score-based ratings make it BAL -3.1 vs the market BAL -4.5: 1.4 points toward LAC.
- Ratings project 44.3 total points vs a 38.5 market total (+5.8).
- BAL starts Jacoby Brissett instead of usual starter Lamar Jackson. The ratings come from games he did not start, so the market line is more reliable here.
- Rest edge: BAL has 3 more days of rest.
- BAL at home since 2021: average margin +3.7, -0.6 vs the closing spread over 47 games.
The sims play every snap of this game 500,000 times, tuned to the market spread and total. The projected final is the most common score at the sims’ typical margin and total.
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