Dolphins at Colts: Week 10 prediction
Sun, Nov 15, 1:00 PM ET · Lucas Oil Stadium · NFL 2026, Week 10
Projected final17–20
MIA 17, IND 20
MIA 17, IND 20
Win chance in the sims60%
Colts
Colts
MarketIND −3.5
Total 38.5
Total 38.5
What the sims say
| Bet | Line | Sims |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | IND −3.5 | IND covers 50%, MIA 50% |
| Total | 38.5 | Over 50%, under 50% |
| Average score | MIA 18, IND 21.3 | One-score game 49% |
Why
- Score-based ratings make it IND -3.7 vs the market IND -3.5: 0.2 points toward IND.
- Ratings project 46.2 total points vs a 38.5 market total (+7.7).
- MIA starts Kyle McCord instead of usual starter Malik Willis. The ratings come from games he did not start, so the market line is more reliable here.
- IND at home since 2021: average margin +0.8, -0.2 vs the closing spread over 46 games.
The sims play every snap of this game 500,000 times, tuned to the market spread and total. The projected final is the most common score at the sims’ typical margin and total.
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