Patriots at Lions: Week 10 prediction
Sun, Nov 15, 9:30 AM ET · FC Bayern Munich Stadium · NFL 2026, Week 10
Projected final24–27
NE 24, DET 27
NE 24, DET 27
Win chance in the sims54%
Lions
Lions
MarketDET −2.5
Total 51.5
Total 51.5
What the sims say
| Bet | Line | Sims |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | DET −2.5 | DET covers 50%, NE 50% |
| Total | 51.5 | Over 50%, under 50% |
| Average score | NE 25.7, DET 27 | One-score game 51% |
Game picks
- NE +2.5: 57% in the sims · Edge
- Over 51.5: 50% in the sims · Thin edge
Why
- Score-based ratings make it DET +0.4 vs the market DET -2.5: 2.9 points toward NE.
- Ratings project 49.4 total points vs a 51.5 market total (-2.1).
- Neutral site: no home-field points.
The sims play every snap of this game 500,000 times, tuned to the market spread and total. The projected final is the most common score at the sims’ typical margin and total.
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