Vikings at Packers: Week 10 prediction
Sun, Nov 15, 1:00 PM ET · Lambeau Field · NFL 2026, Week 10
Projected final20–23
MIN 20, GB 23
MIN 20, GB 23
Win chance in the sims57%
Packers
Packers
MarketGB −3
Total 42.5
Total 42.5
What the sims say
| Bet | Line | Sims |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | GB −3 | GB covers 47%, MIN 47% |
| Total | 42.5 | Over 50%, under 50% |
| Average score | MIN 20.3, GB 22.6 | One-score game 50% |
Why
- Score-based ratings make it GB -0.8 vs the market GB -3: 2.2 points toward MIN.
- Ratings project 38.0 total points vs a 42.5 market total (-4.5).
- MIN starts Kirk Cousins instead of usual starter Kyler Murray. The ratings come from games he did not start, so the market line is more reliable here.
- GB at home since 2021: average margin +6.2, +1.9 vs the closing spread over 45 games.
The sims play every snap of this game 500,000 times, tuned to the market spread and total. The projected final is the most common score at the sims’ typical margin and total.
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